Methodology behind the Couillard Polimeter

At first, the electoral commitments of the platform of the Liberal Party of Quebec as presented on their web page during the 2014 campaign were collated into one document. Then, the promises were separated from statements that did not constitute promises. To be classified as a promise, a platform statement must commit the party to perform an action or to achieve an explicit goal, and the commitment must be worded to allow the researcher to assess objectively whether this action or purpose has been achieved. Assertions with wording that does not allow such an objective evaluation are not considered promises.

All platform statements that meet our definition are included in the analysis as individual promises. Some promises are easy to fulfill, at least with a majority government, because they are already in the legislative "pipeline", for example. Other promises are more difficult to fulfill, either because they face political or economic barriers, or because it takes considerable time for the promise to become a reality.

In a second step, every promise is classified as "fulfilled," "kept in part or still in the works," "broken," or "not yet rated." To be classified as "fulfilled", a promise must be followed by an observable government action that is officially sanctioned (law, regulation, diplomatic treaty, etc.). A promise is classified as "still in the works" if an action to realize it was officially undertaken (a white paper, a bill, for example), even if the adoption and implementation are not complete. Promises coded "still in the works" automatically become "broken" promises as soon as the head of government requests the dissolution of the House. A promise is classified as “kept in part“ when the result is a compromise compared to the promise stated in the platform.  A promise is classified as "broken" if it was blocked by the opposition (in a minority government) or if the government has officially abandoned the project. A broken promise is not necessarily a sign of failure, and does not always mean that the government has renounced the promise made forever. Finally, the promises that have not yet led to any formal action to achieve them without being abandoned or blocked are classified as "not yet rated." Election promises are expected to be fulfilled within the legislature that follows the election in which they are made, whatever its duration. Promises coded "still in the works" automatically become "broken" promises as soon as the head of government requests the dissolution of the House. The same goes with promises that are not yet rated at the end of a parliament: they become ipso facto "broken promises."

Our classification into four levels of promise fulfilment is akin to the classification used by the Comparative Party Plegde Group ( CPPG ), a consortium of international researchers interested in the comparative study of the implementation of election promises. The only difference is the addition of the classification "not yet rated" in the Polimeter. The CPPG focuses solely on promises of the past, the category "not yet rated" is therefore unnecessary in its classification.

For now, the Couillard Polimeter only evaluates promises in the election committments of the Liberal Party of Quebec in 2014, excluding the promises made by Philippe Couillard and other leaders of the party outside the platform. The Polimeter team is considering different methods for the identification of promises presented outside the official platform during elections campaigns in order to include them in future polimeters.

The ratings of the promises in the Couillard Polimeter are regularly updated to reflect new initiatives undertaken by the government. This first detailed account of the fulfillment of the promises of the Couillard government shows that 35 percent of the promises made were kept in whole or in part after a little more than 100 days in power. Time will tell if the promises classified as "pending" today will be completed before the next election.

If you have any questions or comments about the methodology, please contact us by email at [email protected]